Throughout this season, the St. Louis Cardinals and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak have tried to balance player runway and opportunity while still churning out wins.
It’s only fitting that their trade deadline represents that same tricky balance.
Major League Baseball’s annual trade deadline is 5 p.m. CST on July 31. Yes, that is seven weeks away, but the Cardinals will need as much time as possible to decide how to navigate it. In a season that was supposed to be about bolstering the future of the organization, the Cardinals have emerged as one of baseball’s most surprising teams. Now they must decide if they’ll stick to their original plan, attempt to make a playoff push — or try to find a way to accomplish both.
“Things will be determined by how we play and what our record is,” Mozeliak said to The Athletic in May. “We hope we’re in a position where we’re adding to our club. But if we’re not, we have a lot of exciting pieces that teams would value as we get closer to July 31. Time will tell. But I think it’s a fun team to watch, I think it’s entertaining. And I hope we have to make some really hard decisions.”
How will the Cardinals navigate the trade market this year? Your guess is as good as theirs at the moment. Here are three early storylines to watch as the trade deadline rapidly approaches.
The Cardinals’ winning record throws an unexpected wrinkle into their trade deadline approach. (Jeff Curry / Imagn Images)
Will the Cardinals buy, sell or hold?
Virtually nobody within the industry expected St. Louis to compete to this extent, yet here the Cardinals are, four games over .500 with little indication of their performance being a fluke. The focus was to be on rebuilding their player development system, bolstering their minor-league affiliates and extending playing time to young players on the major-league roster. If that led to wins, great. But that certainly wasn’t the primary objective.
Still, Mozeliak never advertised a full rebuild. He did state he wanted to reset. His team had veteran staples like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, and Mozeliak hoped the younger players on the roster would take steps to help supplement that group, which would in turn lead to wins. The theory raised serious concerns regarding whether the Cardinals had truly committed to a direction. Yet, after one-third of the regular season, Mozeliak’s idea of balancing player runway with team results has been successful.
The Cardinals could take a nosedive before the All-Star break, which would make deadline decisions much easier for Mozeliak. If the Cardinals spiral over the next five weeks, trading away players on expiring deals (similar to how the team operated at the deadline in 2023) makes sense for the long-term future. But Mozeliak has said all along that he hopes to have to make difficult decisions come July 31.
What will happen if St. Louis finds itself in contention at the deadline? Will ownership permit Mozeliak to buy? Early internal rumblings indicate yes, but the organization will be cautious in how it spends, as the Cardinals don’t want to veer from their stated plans ahead of the season. The objective of this season remains player development. If the Cardinals buy at the deadline, expect it to range on the smaller scale with moves that will incrementally improve the roster without depleting the organization’s minor-league depth or bidding farewell to top prospects.
Perhaps that puts the Cardinals in the “holders” category, rather than true buyers. But it’s important to remember that this trade deadline isn’t just about this season. It’s also about 2026 and beyond, and creating a smooth transition period for Chaim Bloom.
How will this year’s transition plan impact deadline decisions?
Regardless of what path Mozeliak and the Cardinals take, future seasons — ones that will not involve Mozeliak at the helm — will take priority in the decision-making. The Cardinals can still compete this year. It would be hard to fathom Mozeliak tearing down a competitive roster in his final season as president of baseball operations unless the team’s record warranted it. Still, everyone has a boss, and it will be an ownership decision regarding how to navigate this year’s deadline.
Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and team president Bill DeWitt III had planned for 2025 to be a recession year. They knew their television rights deal would take a hit as they worked to restructure it. They also expected attendance to suffer. That led to a decrease in payroll to start the year, which played into the Cardinals’ reset season. While ownership understands the responsibility of reestablishing winning baseball in St. Louis, it’s unlikely it would deviate from their plans.
This year’s deadline will still be in Mozeliak’s control. Bloom won’t be making any decisions about the major-league roster this deadline, though he’ll certainly be available for consultation if needed. But Mozeliak’s last trade deadline isn’t solely about what direction he thinks is best for the remainder of the season. He’ll be working under parameters set by ownership while also taking into consideration what Bloom will inherit come the offseason.
Will the Cardinals trade Ryan Helsley?
It’s a simple yes if they sell. It’s a much more perplexing situation if they don’t.
The Cardinals baffled most of the industry when they decided to hold on to Helsley over the offseason, despite the two-time All-Star closer’s trade value being at an all-time high. Now, Helsley is in his final season before free agency, and no position is more coveted at the deadline than high-end relief.
But if the Cardinals are in the thick of a playoff race, can they justify offloading their closer? Does the organization have a viable option to close if it moves him? If the Cardinals keep Helsley, how much of a potential return will they have squandered? Would the club consider extending him if it doesn’t trade him?
The last question isn’t for Mozeliak. It’s one for ownership and for Bloom. But all of the above will be taken into consideration when deciding whether to shop Helsley or retain him for a potential postseason run. It’s a complex decision for a complex trade deadline. Moving Helsley could define the season. Not moving him could result in a major miss on a return. It’s on the Cardinals to decide what matters most.